CNA Explains: Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and fled. What’s next?

Political uncertainty shrouds Bangladesh after the country’s Prime Minister Sheik Hasina resigned and fled the country in a culmination of weeks of deadly unrest, ending her 15-year rule.
On Monday (Aug 5), hundreds of demonstrators stormed and ransacked Hasina’s official residence. Protesters also pummeled a statue of Hasina’s father Sheik Mujibur Rahman, the country’s founder, while others set a museum dedicated to him on fire. 
More than 300 people have been killed since protests began. Thousands were also arrested.
Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin late on Monday ordered the release of prisoners from the protests, as well as former prime minister and key opposition leader Khaleda Zia, 78.
The military has said it would form an interim government. The student movement that set the chain of events in motion said it would propose an outline for the new interim government. 
In June, the High Court of Bangladesh reinstated a quota that reserves 30 per cent of government jobs for children of the veterans of Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war.
This came after a group of veterans’ relatives filed a written petition urging the court to reapply the quota.
This quota was previously in place and rescinded by the government in response to massive student protests in 2018.
A further 26 per cent of jobs were allocated to women, disabled people and ethnic minorities. This left about 3,000 positions that 400,000 graduates would have to compete for in the civil services exam in a country where unemployment is rampant. 
Latest figures released by Bangladesh authorities in May showed that about 2.6 million individuals were unemployed.
Students began protesting the reinstatement, arguing that the quota system was discriminatory and benefited supporters of Hasina’s Awami League party, which led the independence movement. 
While the protests were initially peaceful, they turned violent as security officials and pro-government activists dispersed tear gas and fired rubber bullets. 
Rallies across the nation intensified after Hasina referred to the protesters as “razakars”, which refers to people who collaborated with Pakistan during the 1971 war.
Hasina addressed the nation and announced a judicial probe after people died following the clashes. The government then restricted the internet, putting in place a communication blackout.
Police said protesters vandalised property and torched government buildings, including a national television station.
On Jul 19, the government imposed a curfew with a shoot-on-sight order. However, students defied the curfew.
Amid the protests, curfew and internet shutdown, the Supreme Court on Jul 21 issued an order to reduce the quota from 30 per cent to 5 per cent. It ruled that 93 per cent of jobs would instead be open to candidates on merit. 
However, the protests continued as students and other citizens assembled with a new purpose, calling for Hasina to step down.
“It seems at the point that the court finally ruled in favor of what the protesters were asking, things had run away,” said Professor Greg Barton, chair of global Islamic politics at Deakin University.
Barton noted that Hasina’s 15 years of rule were marred with concerns about election fraud, corruption, nepotism and authoritarian crackdowns.
“There generally seemed to be a democratic backsliding. So there were lots of deep-rooted causes for anger, of which the civil service quota was just one,” he said.
Barton said it was “not surprising” that Hasina was “ultimately forced to resign”, but given that she began her fourth consecutive term earlier this year, her resignation was not certain from the outset.
Nusrat Chowdhury, associate professor of anthropology and sociology at Amherst College, said it was obvious to observers and residents that things could not go back to the way they were.
This was due to the violence that has gripped the country in the past two weeks, as well as “the way in which the government seemed really out of touch with what the protesters were wanting”, she said.
“At the same time, I think many of us were surprised at the haste in which the events have unfolded,” Chowdhury noted.
With the quota movement being described as a “spark that started the fire”,  she pointed out that a long history and “cumulative effect of grievances and resentment” were expressed through the recent protests.
The military, which will be forming an interim government, is seen as a nonpartisan institution and will have little power despite their position, said Chowdhury.
“It is also going to be very difficult for the military or any oppositional party to hijack the movement,” she said, pointing to the passion and commitment of the students who turned up to protest despite being shot at.
“If it’s a faith that the protesters in Bangladesh have placed on the military, it’s a temporary one, and they will be watching their actions very carefully.”
Mubashar Hasan, post doctoral researcher at the University of Oslo in Norway, said that it is “quite obvious” that the students would not appreciate a military rule, given that one of the key reasons for the situation in Bangladesh is that Hasina established a “creeping authoritarian rule in the country”.
“Obviously, students are sceptical about a military-led interim government, because that is also not likely to be a government that would shy away from authoritarian style of ruling,” he said.
“At the same time, negotiation would be key.”
However, permanent military rule is “certainly possible” and a risk, said Barton.
“Once the euphoria of what’s happened … dies down, people will start to worry increasingly about that,” he said.
Calling Bangladesh a “standout success story in development”, Barton added: “Hopefully the military realises they should be part of the success, rather than being blamed for it being threatened, but there needs to be new structures put in place.”
If students do not accept military rule, a civilian government could, with support from the military, work as an interim government and organise an election that is free and fair, said Hasan. He noted that Bangladesh has had experience with such a system.
Initially, a lot of hopes will be focused on former prime minister Zia, and people will look to her for leadership, said Barton.
“Hopefully, the release of this important leader, but also other political prisoners or people who are detained over political charges, will unfreeze a process of political contestation and openness,” he added.